- Release of the Fed’s inflation gauge the Core PCE: A potential slowdown in inflation
- Release of China data that could potentially impact Crude Oil
This week, all eyes are on the U.S. and upcoming China data set to be released early next week before the markets open, as both nations could potentially influence global markets. Let’s take a closer look into what we can expect from these major economic in the coming days.
The U.S.
On Friday, June 28, 2024, at 4:30 PM GMT+4 (Dubai Time), the Fed’s favorite inflation gauge, the Core PCE Price Index m/m (PCE) will be released. The release of this key economic data will provide further insights into whether the U.S. is experiencing a continued slowdown in inflation.
If there were to be a scenario where the Core PCE results meet or fall below the expected 0.1%, this would most likely increase pressure on the Fed to start cutting interest rates. As a result, this scenario would most likely lead to a drop in the U.S. Dollar value, as per analyst analysis.
Conversely, if the Core PCE reading came in higher than expected, it could potentially weaken the case for interest rate cuts soon. Consequently, this would most probably cause the U.S. Dollar value to rise, as per analyst analysis.
In addition to the Core PCE, we also have other significant U.S. economic data releases scheduled for this week. The Consumer Confidence data will be released on Tuesday, June 25, 2024, and Durable Goods Orders on Thursday, June 27, 2024. Both economic data are expected to show less-than-anticipated results, signaling potential economic weakness and possibly negatively impacting the U.S. Dollar's value, as per analyst predictions.
China
On Sunday, June 30, 2024, at 5:30 AM GMT+4 (Dubai Time), both the Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs are scheduled for release. If both indicators come in lower than expected, it will signal a continued slowdown in the manufacturing and services sectors, suggesting a weakening economy. This economic slowdown could reduce demand for crude oil, especially since China is the world's top crude oil importer. Consequently, this would likely lead to a decline in crude oil prices, as per analyst forecasts.
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